14.7
|
Enterprise Value – Net Present Values and Sensitivities
The following section presents the NPVs of the nominal cash flow as derived form the FMs for each Material Property and the consolidated summary for the Company.
The various NPV tables include the following:
- NPVs at a range of discount factors in relation to the Mining Asset specific WACC;
- NPV sensitivity to discount factors based on percentage variance of the Mining Asset specific WACC;
- NPV sensitivity to sales revenue, total working costs and capital expenditure derived from single parameter sensitivity analysis at the Mining Asset specific WACC; and
- NPV sensitivity to sales revenue and total working costs derived from twin parameter sensitivity at the Mining Asset specific WACC.
In addition to the above IRR sensitivities to sales revenue and total working costs has also been derived for certain of the projects associated with the Material Properties.
|
|
|
14.7.1
|
Sishen Mine
Table 14.43 Sishen Mine: NPV at Various Discount Factors – Scenario I
|
| Discount Factor |
NPV |
| (%) |
(ZARm) |
| 3.00% |
51,692 |
| 6.00% |
37,935 |
| 9.00% |
28,820 |
| 12.25% |
22,170 |
| 15.00% |
18,218 |
| 18.00% |
15,054 |
| 21.00% |
12,709 |
| |
Table 14.44 Sishen Mine: NPV Sensitivity to WACC – Scenario I
|
| Sensitivity |
Discount Factor |
NPV |
| (%) |
(%) |
(ZARm) |
| –20.00% |
9.80% |
26,930 |
| –15.00% |
10.41% |
25,605 |
| –10.00% |
11.02% |
24,375 |
| – 5.00% |
11.63% |
23,233 |
| 0.00% |
12.25% |
22,170 |
| |
|
|
| 5.00% |
12.86% |
21,181 |
| 10.00% |
13.47% |
20,258 |
| 15.00% |
14.08% |
19,397 |
| 20.00% |
14.69% |
18,593 |
| |
Table 14.45 Sishen Mine: Single Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC – Scenario I
|
| Sensitivity Range – Revenue |
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| Sensitivity Range – Total Working Cost |
–15% |
–10% |
–5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
| Sensitivity Range – Capital Expenditure |
–15% |
–10% |
–5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
| |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
| Revenue |
(2,216) |
5,608 |
13,504 |
22,170 |
31,613 |
41,832 |
52,828 |
| Total Working Cost |
25,865 |
24,633 |
23,402 |
22,170 |
20,939 |
19,707 |
18,476 |
| Capital Expenditure |
23,252 |
22,891 |
22,531 |
22,170 |
21,810 |
21,449 |
21,089 |
| |
Table 14.46
|
Sishen Mine: Twin Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC (Revenue, Working Costs) –Scenario I
|
|
| NPV (ZARm) |
|
|
|
Revenue Sensitivity |
|
|
| |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
–15% |
2,111 |
9,308 |
17,198 |
25,865 |
35,308 |
45,527 |
56,522 |
| Total |
–10% |
786 |
8,076 |
15,967 |
24,633 |
34,076 |
44,295 |
55,291 |
| Working |
–5% |
(589) |
6,843 |
14,735 |
23,402 |
32,845 |
43,064 |
54,059 |
| Costs |
0% |
(2,216) |
5,608 |
13,504 |
22,170 |
31,613 |
41,832 |
52,828 |
| Sensitivity |
5% |
(3,951) |
4,365 |
12,272 |
20,939 |
30,382 |
40,601 |
51,596 |
| |
10% |
(5,686) |
3,122 |
11,041 |
19,707 |
29,150 |
39,369 |
50,365 |
| |
15% |
(7,420) |
1,868 |
9,809 |
18,476 |
27,919 |
38,138 |
49,133 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 14.47
|
Sishen
Mine: Twin Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC (Revenue,
Capital Expenditure) – Scenario I
|
|
| NPV (ZARm) |
|
|
|
Revenue Sensitivity |
|
|
| |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
–15% |
(1,135) |
6,689 |
14,585 |
23,252 |
32,695 |
42,914 |
53,909 |
| Capital |
–10% |
(1,495) |
6,329 |
14,225 |
22,891 |
32,334 |
42,553 |
53,549 |
| Expenditure |
–5% |
(1,856) |
5,968 |
13,864 |
22,531 |
31,974 |
42,193 |
53,188 |
| |
0% |
(2,216) |
5,608 |
13,504 |
22,170 |
31,613 |
41,832 |
52,828 |
| |
5% |
(2,577) |
5,247 |
13,143 |
21,810 |
31,253 |
41,472 |
52,467 |
| |
10% |
(2,937) |
4,887 |
12,783 |
21,449 |
30,892 |
41,111 |
52,107 |
| |
15% |
(3,298) |
4,526 |
12,422 |
21,089 |
30,532 |
40,751 |
51,746 |
| |
Table 14.48 Sishen Mine: NPV at Various Discount Factors – Scenario II
|
| Discount Factor |
NPV |
| (%) |
(ZARm) |
| 3.00% |
58,682 |
| 6.00% |
41,583 |
| 9.00% |
30,762 |
| 12.25% |
23,171 |
| 15.00% |
18,798 |
| 18.00% |
15,380 |
| 21.00% |
12,894 |
| |
Table 14.49 Sishen Mine: NPV Sensitivity to WACC – Scenario II
|
| Sensitivity |
Discount Factor |
NPV |
| (%) |
(%) |
(ZARm) |
| –20.00% |
9.80% |
28,576 |
| –15.00% |
10.41% |
27,057 |
| –10.00% |
11.02% |
25,657 |
| – 5.00% |
11.63% |
24,365 |
| 0.00% |
12.25% |
23,171 |
| 5.00% |
12.86% |
22,066 |
| 10.00% |
13.47% |
21,042 |
| 15.00% |
14.08% |
20,091 |
| 20.00% |
14.69% |
19,208 |
| |
Table 14.50 Sishen Mine: Single Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC – Scenario II
|
| Sensitivity Range – Revenue |
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| Sensitivity Range – Total Working Cost |
–15% |
–10% |
–5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
| Sensitivity Range – Capital Expenditure |
–15% |
–10% |
–5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
| |
|
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
| Revenue |
|
(1,913) |
6,072 |
14,225 |
23,171 |
32,916 |
43,460 |
54,804 |
| Total Working Cost |
26,989 |
25,716 |
24,444 |
23,171 |
21,898 |
20,626 |
19,353 |
| Capital Expenditure |
24,252 |
23,892 |
23,531 |
23,171 |
22,810 |
22,450 |
22,090 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 14.51
|
Sishen Mine: Twin Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC (Revenue,
Working Costs) – Scenario II
|
|
| NPV (ZARm) |
|
|
|
Revenue Sensitivity |
|
|
| |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
–15% |
2,465 |
9,896 |
18,043 |
26,989 |
36,734 |
47,279 |
58,622 |
| Total |
–10% |
1,099 |
8,623 |
16,770 |
25,716 |
35,462 |
46,006 |
57,349 |
| Working |
–5% |
(317) |
7,349 |
15,497 |
24,444 |
34,189 |
44,733 |
56,076 |
| Costs |
0% |
(1,913) |
6,072 |
14,225 |
23,171 |
32,916 |
43,460 |
54,804 |
| Sensitivity |
5% |
(3,667) |
4,788 |
12,952 |
21,898 |
31,643 |
42,188 |
53,531 |
| |
10% |
(5,459) |
3,505 |
11,679 |
20,626 |
30,371 |
40,915 |
52,258 |
| |
15% |
(7,252) |
2,208 |
10,407 |
19,353 |
29,098 |
39,642 |
50,985 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 14.52
|
Sishen Mine: Twin Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC
(Re enue, Capital Expenditure) – Scenario II
|
|
| NPV (ZARm) |
|
|
|
Revenue Sensitivity |
|
|
| |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
–15% |
(832) |
7,154 |
15,306 |
24,252 |
33,998 |
44,542 |
55,885 |
| Capital |
–10% |
(1,192) |
6,793 |
14,946 |
23,892 |
33,637 |
44,181 |
55,525 |
| Expenditure |
–5% |
(1,553) |
6,433 |
14,585 |
23,531 |
33,277 |
43,821 |
55,164 |
| |
0% |
(1,913) |
6,072 |
14,225 |
23,171 |
32,916 |
43,460 |
54,804 |
| |
5% |
(2,274) |
5,712 |
13,864 |
22,810 |
32,556 |
43,100 |
54,443 |
| |
10% |
(2,634) |
5,351 |
13,504 |
22,450 |
32,195 |
42,739 |
54,083 |
| |
15% |
(2,995) |
4,991 |
13,143 |
22,090 |
31,835 |
42,379 |
53,722 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
14.7.2 |
Sishen South Project
Table 14.53 Sishen South Project: NPV at Various Discount Factors
|
|
| Discount Factor |
NPV |
| (%) |
(ZARm) |
| 4.00% |
2,763 |
| 8.00% |
1,548 |
| 12.00% |
886 |
| 16.20% |
489 |
| 20.00% |
270 |
| 24.00% |
122 |
| 28.00% |
23 |
| |
|
|
Table 14.54 Sishen South Project: NPV Sensitivity to WACC
|
| Sensitivity |
Discount Factor |
NPV |
| (%) |
(%) |
(ZARm) |
| –20.00% |
12.96% |
775 |
| –15.00% |
13.77% |
692 |
| –10.00% |
14.58% |
617 |
| – 5.00% |
15.39% |
550 |
| 0.00% |
16.20% |
489 |
| 5.00% |
17.01% |
434 |
| 10.00% |
17.82% |
383 |
| 15.00% |
18.63% |
338 |
| 20.00% |
19.44% |
297 |
| |
Table 14.55 Sishen South Project: Single Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC
|
| Sensitivity Range – Revenue |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| Sensitivity Range – Total Working Cost |
–15% |
–10% |
–5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
| Sensitivity Range – Capital Expenditure |
–15% |
–10% |
–5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
| |
|
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
| Revenue |
|
(317) |
(48) |
220 |
489 |
757 |
1,026 |
1,295 |
| Total Working Cost |
|
728 |
648 |
568 |
489 |
409 |
329 |
250 |
| Capital Expenditure |
|
607 |
568 |
528 |
489 |
449 |
410 |
370 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 14.56
|
Sishen South Project: Twin Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC
(Reenue, Working Costs)
|
|
| NPV (ZARm) |
|
|
|
Revenue Sensitivity |
|
|
| |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
–15% |
(78) |
190 |
459 |
728 |
996 |
1,265 |
1,533 |
| Total |
–10% |
(158) |
111 |
379 |
648 |
917 |
1,185 |
1,454 |
| Working |
–5% |
(237) |
31 |
300 |
568 |
837 |
1,106 |
1,374 |
| Costs |
0% |
(317) |
(48) |
220 |
489 |
757 |
1,026 |
1,295 |
| Sensitivity |
5% |
(397) |
(128) |
140 |
409 |
678 |
946 |
1,215 |
| |
10% |
(477) |
(208) |
61 |
329 |
598 |
867 |
1,135 |
| |
15% |
(556) |
(287) |
(19) |
250 |
518 |
787 |
1,056 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 14.57
|
Sishen South Project: Twin Parameter NPV
Sensitivity at the WACC (Revenue, Capital Expenditure)
|
|
| NPV (ZARm) |
|
|
|
Revenue Sensitivity |
|
|
| |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
–15% |
(199) |
70 |
338 |
607 |
876 |
1,144 |
1,413 |
| Capital |
–10% |
(238) |
30 |
299 |
568 |
836 |
1,105 |
1,373 |
| Expenditure |
–5% |
(278) |
(9) |
260 |
528 |
797 |
1,065 |
1,334 |
| |
0% |
(317) |
(48) |
220 |
489 |
757 |
1,026 |
1,295 |
| |
5% |
(357) |
(88) |
181 |
449 |
718 |
987 |
1,255 |
| |
10% |
(396) |
(127) |
141 |
410 |
678 |
947 |
1,216 |
| |
15% |
(435) |
(167) |
102 |
370 |
639 |
908 |
1,176 |
| |
Table 14.58 Sishen South Project: Twin Parameter IRR Sensitivity (Revenue, Working Costs)
|
|
IRR (%)
|
|
Revenue Sensitivity
|
| |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
–15% |
13.77% |
21.60% |
28.53% |
35.05% |
41.33% |
47.45% |
53.44% |
| Total |
–10% |
11.08% |
19.41% |
26.53% |
33.13% |
39.46% |
45.60% |
51.62% |
| Working |
–5% |
8.04% |
17.13% |
24.49% |
31.20% |
37.58% |
43.76% |
49.80% |
| Cost |
0% |
4.39% |
14.71% |
22.40% |
29.24% |
35.69% |
41.91% |
47.97% |
| Sensitivity |
5% |
0.00% |
12.09% |
20.24% |
27.26% |
33.79% |
40.05% |
46.15% |
| |
10% |
0.00% |
9.16% |
18.00% |
25.24% |
31.87% |
38.19% |
44.32% |
| |
15% |
0.00% |
5.70% |
15.63% |
23.18% |
29.94% |
36.32% |
42.48% |
| |
Table 14.59 Sishen South Project: Twin Parameter IRR sensitivity (Revenue, Capital Expenditure)
|
|
IRR (%)
|
|
Revenue Sensitivity
|
| |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
–15% |
7.43% |
18.76% |
27.65% |
35.78% |
43.57% |
51.15% |
58.58% |
| Capital |
–10% |
6.31% |
17.25% |
25.66% |
33.30% |
40.56% |
47.61% |
54.51% |
| Expenditure |
–5% |
5.31% |
15.90% |
23.93% |
31.14% |
37.96% |
44.56% |
51.01% |
| |
0% |
4.39% |
14.71% |
22.40% |
29.24% |
35.69% |
41.91% |
47.97% |
| |
5% |
3.55% |
13.63% |
21.03% |
27.56% |
33.68% |
39.57% |
45.30% |
| |
10% |
2.78% |
12.65% |
19.79% |
26.05% |
31.89% |
37.49% |
42.93% |
| |
15% |
2.07% |
11.75% |
18.67% |
24.69% |
30.28% |
35.63% |
40.81% |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
14.7.3
|
Thabazimbi Mine
Table 14.60 Thabazimbi Mine: NPV at Various Discount Factors
|
| Discount Factor |
|
|
|
|
|
|
NPV |
| (%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
(ZARm) |
| 6.00% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
72 |
| 8.00% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
65 |
| 12.00% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
59 |
| 12.25% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
53 |
| 14.00% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
49 |
| 18.00% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
45 |
| 20.00% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
41 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 14.61 Thabazimbi Mine: NPV Sensitivity to WACC
|
| Sensitivity |
|
|
Discount Factor |
|
NPV |
| (%) |
|
|
|
|
(%) |
|
(ZARm) |
| –20.00% |
|
|
|
9.80% |
|
57 |
| –15.00% |
|
|
|
10.41% |
|
56 |
| –10.00% |
|
|
|
11.02% |
|
55 |
| – 5.00% |
|
|
|
11.63% |
|
54 |
| 0.00% |
|
|
|
12.25% |
|
53 |
| 5.00% |
|
|
|
12.86% |
|
52 |
| 10.00% |
|
|
|
13.47% |
|
51 |
| 15.00% |
|
|
|
14.08% |
|
50 |
| 20.00% |
|
|
|
14.69% |
|
49 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 14.62 Thabazimbi Mine: Single Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC
|
| Sensitivity Range – Revenue |
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| Sensitivity Range – Total Working Cost |
–15% |
–10% |
–5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
| Sensitivity Range – Capital Expenditure |
–15% |
–10% |
–5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
| |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
| Revenue |
(290) |
(175) |
(61) |
53 |
168 |
282 |
396 |
| Total Working Cost |
178 |
136 |
95 |
53 |
12 |
(30) |
(71) |
| Capital Expenditure |
57 |
56 |
55 |
53 |
52 |
51 |
49 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 14.63 Thabazimbi Mine: Twin Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC (Revenue, Working Costs)
|
|
NPV (ZARm)
|
|
Revenue Sensitivity
|
| |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
–15% |
(165) |
(51) |
64 |
178 |
292 |
407 |
521 |
| Total |
–10% |
(207) |
(92) |
22 |
136 |
251 |
365 |
479 |
| Working |
–5% |
(248) |
(134) |
(19) |
95 |
209 |
323 |
438 |
| Costs |
0% |
(290) |
(175) |
(61) |
53 |
168 |
282 |
396 |
| Sensitivity |
5% |
(331) |
(217) |
(103) |
12 |
126 |
240 |
355 |
| |
10% |
(373) |
(258) |
(144) |
(30) |
84 |
199 |
313 |
| |
15% |
(414) |
(300) |
(186) |
(71) |
43 |
157 |
271 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 14.64 Thabazimbi Mine: Twin Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC (Revenue,
Capital Expenditure)
|
| NPV (ZARm) |
|
Revenue Sensitivity |
| |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
–15% |
(286) |
(172) |
(57) |
57 |
171 |
286 |
400 |
| Capital |
–10% |
(287) |
(173) |
(59) |
56 |
170 |
284 |
399 |
| Expenditure |
–5% |
(288) |
(174) |
(60) |
55 |
169 |
283 |
397 |
| |
0% |
(290) |
(175) |
(61) |
53 |
168 |
282 |
396 |
| |
5% |
(291) |
(177) |
(62) |
52 |
166 |
281 |
395 |
| |
10% |
(292) |
(178) |
(64) |
51 |
165 |
279 |
394 |
| |
15% |
(293) |
(179) |
(65) |
49 |
164 |
278 |
392 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
14.7.4 |
Grootegeluk Mine
Exxaro will not have a coal supply contract with the Matimba Power Station which extends for and additional 20 years to 40 years, and therefore SRK consider it prudent to investigate a 19-year LoM option up to the year the current Matimba Power Station contract expires (Scenario I) and a 40-year option (Scenario II).
Scenario I
Table 14.65 Grootegeluk Mine: NPV at Various Discount Factors – Scenario I
|
| Discount Factor |
NPV |
| (%) |
(ZARm) |
| 3.00% |
13,098 |
| 6.00% |
9,715 |
| 9.00% |
7,431 |
| 12.25% |
5,736 |
| 15.00% |
4,716 |
| 18.00% |
3,890 |
| 21.00% |
3,272 |
| |
|
|
Table 14.66 Grootegeluk Mine: NPV Sensitivity to WACC – Scenario I
|
| Sensitivity |
Discount Factor |
NPV |
| (%) |
(%) |
(ZARm) |
| –20.00% |
9.80% |
6,952 |
| –15.00% |
10.41% |
6,615 |
| –10.00% |
11.02% |
6,301 |
| – 5.00% |
11.63% |
6,009 |
| 0.00% |
12.25% |
5,736 |
| 5.00% |
12.86% |
5,482 |
| 10.00% |
13.47% |
5,244 |
| 15.00% |
14.08% |
5,022 |
| 20.00% |
14.69% |
4,813 |
| |
Table 14.67 Grootegeluk Mine: Single Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC – Scenario I
|
| Sensitivity Range – Revenue |
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| Sensitivity Range – Total Working Cost |
–15% |
–10% |
–5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
| Sensitivity Range – Capital Expenditure |
–15% |
–10% |
–5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
| |
|
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
| Revenue |
|
(520) |
1,566 |
3,651 |
5,736 |
7,822 |
9,907 |
11,993 |
| Total Working Cost |
7,358 |
6,817 |
6,277 |
5,736 |
5,196 |
4,656 |
4,115 |
| Capital Expenditure |
5,994 |
5,908 |
5,822 |
5,736 |
5,651 |
5,565 |
5,479 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 14.68 Grootegeluk Mine: Twin Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC (Revenue,
Working Costs) – Scenario I
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| NPV (ZARm) |
|
Revenue Sensitivity |
| |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
–15% |
1,101 |
3,187 |
5,272 |
7,358 |
9,443 |
11,529 |
13,614 |
| Total |
–10% |
561 |
2,646 |
4,732 |
6,817 |
8,903 |
10,988 |
13,074 |
| Working |
–5% |
21 |
2,106 |
4,191 |
6,277 |
8,362 |
10,448 |
12,533 |
| Costs |
0% |
(520) |
1,566 |
3,651 |
5,736 |
7,822 |
9,907 |
11,993 |
| Sensitivity |
5% |
(1,060) |
1,025 |
3,111 |
5,196 |
7,282 |
9,367 |
11,452 |
| |
10% |
(1,601) |
485 |
2,570 |
4,656 |
6,741 |
8,827 |
10,912 |
| |
15% |
(2,141) |
(56) |
2,030 |
4,115 |
6,201 |
8,286 |
10,372 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 14.69
|
Grootegeluk Mine: Twin Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC (Revenue, Capital Expenditure) – Scenario I
|
|
| NPV (ZARm) |
|
Revenue Sensitivity |
| |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
–15% |
(263) |
1,823 |
3,908 |
5,994 |
8,079 |
10,165 |
12,250 |
| Capital |
–10% |
(348) |
1,737 |
3,823 |
5,908 |
7,993 |
10,079 |
12,164 |
| Expenditure |
–5% |
(434) |
1,651 |
3,737 |
5,822 |
7,908 |
9,993 |
12,079 |
| |
0% |
(520) |
1,566 |
3,651 |
5,736 |
7,822 |
9,907 |
11,993 |
| |
5% |
(606) |
1,480 |
3,565 |
5,651 |
7,736 |
9,822 |
11,907 |
| |
10% |
(691) |
1,394 |
3,480 |
5,565 |
7,650 |
9,736 |
11,821 |
| |
15% |
(777) |
1,308 |
3,394 |
5,479 |
7,565 |
9,650 |
11,736 |
| |
|
Table 14.70 Grootegeluk Mine: NPV at Various Discount Factors – Scenario II
|
| Discount Factor |
NPV |
| (%) |
(ZARm) |
| 3.00% |
34,206 |
| 6.00% |
18,660 |
| 9.00% |
11,428 |
| 12.25% |
7,500 |
| 15.00% |
5,634 |
| 18.00% |
4,358 |
| 21.00% |
3,519 |
| |
Table 14.71 Grootegeluk Mine: NPV Sensitivity to WACC – Scenario II
|
| Sensitivity |
Discount Factor |
NPV |
| (%) |
(%) |
(ZARm) |
| –20.00% |
9.80% |
10,204 |
| –15.00% |
10.41% |
9,398 |
| –10.00% |
11.02% |
8,687 |
| – 5.00% |
11.63% |
8,059 |
| |
|
|
| 0.00% |
12.25% |
7,500 |
| |
|
|
| 5.00% |
12.86% |
7,003 |
| 10.00% |
13.47% |
6,557 |
| 15.00% |
14.08% |
6,158 |
| 20.00% |
14.69% |
5,798 |
| |
Table 14.72 Grootegeluk Mine: Single Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC – Scenario II
|
| Sensitivity Range – Revenue |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| Sensitivity Range – Total Working Cost |
–15% |
–10% |
–5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
| Sensitivity Range – Capital Expenditure |
–15% |
–10% |
–5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
| |
|
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Revenue |
|
(600) |
2,100 |
4,800 |
7,500 |
10,200 |
12,900 |
15,600 |
| Total Working Cost |
|
9,618 |
8,912 |
8,206 |
7,500 |
6,795 |
6,089 |
5,383 |
| Capital Expenditure |
|
7,803 |
7,702 |
7,601 |
7,500 |
7,400 |
7,299 |
7,198 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 14.73
|
Grootegeluk Mine: Twin Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC (Revenue,
Working Costs) – Scenario II
|
|
| NPV (ZARm) |
|
|
|
Revenue Sensitivity |
|
|
| |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
–15% |
1,518 |
4,218 |
6,918 |
9,618 |
12,318 |
15,018 |
17,718 |
| Total |
–10% |
812 |
3,512 |
6,212 |
8,912 |
11,612 |
14,312 |
17,012 |
| Working |
–5% |
106 |
2,806 |
5,506 |
8,206 |
10,906 |
13,606 |
16,306 |
| Costs |
0% |
(600) |
2,100 |
4,800 |
7,500 |
10,200 |
12,900 |
15,600 |
| Sensitivity |
5% |
(1,305) |
1,395 |
4,095 |
6,795 |
9,495 |
12,195 |
14,895 |
| |
10% |
(2,011) |
689 |
3,389 |
6,089 |
8,789 |
11,489 |
14,189 |
| |
15% |
(2,717) |
(17) |
2,683 |
5,383 |
8,083 |
10,783 |
13,483 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 14.74
|
Grootegeluk Mine: Twin Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC (Revenue,
Capital Expenditure) – Scenario II
|
|
| NPV (ZARm) |
|
|
|
Revenue Sensitivity |
|
|
| |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
–15% |
(297) |
2,403 |
5,103 |
7,803 |
10,503 |
13,203 |
15,903 |
| Capital |
–10% |
(398) |
2,302 |
5,002 |
7,702 |
10,402 |
13,102 |
15,802 |
| Expenditure |
–5% |
(499) |
2,201 |
4,901 |
7,601 |
10,301 |
13,001 |
15,701 |
| |
0% |
(600) |
2,100 |
4,800 |
7,500 |
10,200 |
12,900 |
15,600 |
| |
5% |
(701) |
2,000 |
4,700 |
7,400 |
10,100 |
12,800 |
15,500 |
| |
10% |
(801) |
1,899 |
4,599 |
7,299 |
9,999 |
12,699 |
15,399 |
| |
15% |
(902) |
1,798 |
4,498 |
7,198 |
9,898 |
12,598 |
15,298 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
14.7.5 |
Leeuwpan Mine
Table 14.75 Leeuwpan Mine: NPV at Various Discount Factors
|
| Discount Factor |
NPV |
| (%) |
(ZARm) |
| 3.00% |
3,609 |
| 6.00% |
2,413 |
| 9.00% |
1,715 |
| 12.25% |
1,256 |
| 15.00% |
1,003 |
| 18.00% |
811 |
| 21.00% |
674 |
| |
Table 14.76 Leeuwpan Mine: NPV Sensitivity to WACC
|
| Sensitivity |
Discount Factor |
NPV |
| (%) |
(%) |
(ZARm) |
| |
|
|
| –20.00% |
9.80% |
1,581 |
| –15.00% |
10.41% |
1,488 |
| –10.00% |
11.02% |
1,404 |
| – 5.00% |
11.63% |
1,327 |
| 0.00% |
12.25% |
1,256 |
| 5.00% |
12.86% |
1,192 |
| 10.00% |
13.47% |
1,132 |
| 15.00% |
14.08% |
1,077 |
| 20.00% |
14.69% |
1,027 |
|
|
Table 14.77 Leeuwpan Mine: Single Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC
|
| Sensitivity Range – Revenue |
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| Sensitivity Range – Total Working Cost |
–15% |
–10% |
–5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
| Sensitivity Range – Capital Expenditure |
–15% |
–10% |
–5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
| |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
| Revenue |
(109) |
346 |
801 |
1,256 |
1,711 |
2,167 |
2,622 |
| Total Working Cost |
1,612 |
1,493 |
1,375 |
1,256 |
1,138 |
1,019 |
901 |
| Capital Expenditure |
1,311 |
1,293 |
1,274 |
1,256 |
1,238 |
1,220 |
1,202 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 14.78 Leeuwpan Mine: Twin Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC (Revenue, Working Costs)
|
|
NPV (ZARm)
|
|
Revenue Sensitivity |
| |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
–15% |
246 |
702 |
1,157 |
1,612 |
2,067 |
2,522 |
2,978 |
| Total |
–10% |
128 |
583 |
1,038 |
1,493 |
1,949 |
2,404 |
2,859 |
| Working |
–5% |
9 |
464 |
920 |
1,375 |
1,830 |
2,285 |
2,740 |
| Costs |
0% |
(109) |
346 |
801 |
1,256 |
1,711 |
2,167 |
2,622 |
| Sensitivity |
5% |
(228) |
227 |
683 |
1,138 |
1,593 |
2,048 |
2,503 |
| |
10% |
(346) |
109 |
564 |
1,019 |
1,474 |
1,930 |
2,385 |
| |
15% |
(465) |
(10) |
445 |
901 |
1,356 |
1,811 |
2,266 |
|
|
Table 14.79 Leeuwpan Mine: Twin parameter NPV sensitivity at the WACC (Revenue, Capital Expenditure)
|
| NPV (ZARm) |
|
Revenue Sensitivity |
| |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
–15% |
(55) |
400 |
856 |
1,311 |
1,766 |
2,221 |
2,676 |
| Capital |
–10% |
(73) |
382 |
837 |
1,293 |
1,748 |
2,203 |
2,658 |
| Expenditure |
–5% |
(91) |
364 |
819 |
1,274 |
1,730 |
2,185 |
2,640 |
| |
0% |
(109) |
346 |
801 |
1,256 |
1,711 |
2,167 |
2,622 |
| |
5% |
(127) |
328 |
783 |
1,238 |
1,693 |
2,148 |
2,604 |
| |
10% |
(146) |
310 |
765 |
1,220 |
1,675 |
2,130 |
2,585 |
| |
15% |
(164) |
291 |
747 |
1,202 |
1,657 |
2,112 |
2,567 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
14.7.6
|
Tshikondeni Mine
Table 14.80 Tshikondeni Mine: NPV at Various Discount Factors
|
| Discount Factor |
NPV |
| (%) |
(ZARm) |
| 3.00% |
176 |
| 6.00% |
150 |
| 9.00% |
128 |
| 12.25% |
109 |
| 15.00% |
95 |
| 18.00% |
83 |
| 21.00% |
73 |
| |
|
|
Table 14.81 Tshikondeni Mine: NPV Sensitivity to WACC
|
| Sensitivity |
Discount Factor |
NPV |
| (%) |
(%) |
(ZARm) |
| –20.00% |
9.80% |
123 |
| –15.00% |
10.41% |
119 |
| –10.00% |
11.02% |
115 |
| – 5.00% |
11.63% |
112 |
| 0.00% |
12.25% |
109 |
| 5.00% |
12.86% |
106 |
| 10.00% |
13.47% |
103 |
| 15.00% |
14.08% |
100 |
| 20.00% |
14.69% |
97 |
|
|
Table 14.82 Tshikondeni Mine: Single Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC
|
| Sensitivity Range – Revenue |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| Sensitivity Range – Total Working Cost |
–15% |
–10% |
–5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
| Sensitivity Range – Capital Expenditure |
–15% |
–10% |
–5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
| |
|
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
| Revenue |
|
(429) |
(250) |
(70) |
109 |
288 |
467 |
646 |
| Total Working Cost |
|
328 |
255 |
182 |
109 |
36 |
(38) |
(111) |
| Capital Expenditure |
|
133 |
125 |
117 |
109 |
101 |
93 |
84 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 14.83 Tshikondeni Mine: Twin Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC (Revenue,
Working Costs)
|
| NPV (ZARm) |
|
|
|
Revenue Sensitivity |
|
|
| |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
–15% |
(209) |
(30) |
149 |
328 |
507 |
687 |
866 |
| Total |
–10% |
(282) |
(103) |
76 |
255 |
434 |
613 |
793 |
| Working |
–5% |
(356) |
(176) |
3 |
182 |
361 |
540 |
719 |
| Costs |
0% |
(429) |
(250) |
(70) |
109 |
288 |
467 |
646 |
| Sensitivity |
5% |
(502) |
(323) |
(144) |
36 |
215 |
394 |
573 |
| |
10% |
(575) |
(396) |
(217) |
(38) |
142 |
321 |
500 |
| |
15% |
(648) |
(469) |
(290) |
(111) |
68 |
247 |
427 |
|
|
Table 14.84
|
Tshikondeni Mine: Twin Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC (Revenue, Capital Expenditure)
|
|
| NPV (ZARm) |
|
|
|
Revenue Sensitivity |
|
|
|
| |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
–15% |
(404) |
(225) |
(46) |
133 |
312 |
491 |
671 |
| Capital |
–10% |
(413) |
(233) |
(54) |
125 |
304 |
483 |
662 |
| Expenditure |
–5% |
(421) |
(241) |
(62) |
117 |
296 |
475 |
654 |
| |
0% |
(429) |
(250) |
(70) |
109 |
288 |
467 |
646 |
| |
5% |
(437) |
(258) |
(79) |
101 |
280 |
459 |
638 |
| |
10% |
(445) |
(266) |
(87) |
93 |
272 |
451 |
630 |
| |
15% |
(453) |
(274) |
(95) |
84 |
264 |
443 |
622 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
14.7.7
|
Arnot Colliery
Table 14.85 Arnot Colliery: NPV at Various Discount Factors
|
| Discount Factor |
|
|
NPV |
| (%) |
|
|
(ZARm) |
| 3.00% |
|
|
333 |
| 6.00% |
|
|
278 |
| 9.00% |
|
|
236 |
| 12.25% |
|
|
201 |
| 15.00% |
|
|
178 |
| 18.00% |
|
|
158 |
| 21.00% |
|
|
141 |
|
|
Table 14.86 Arnot Colliery: NPV Sensitivity to WACC
|
| Sensitivity |
Discount Factor |
NPV |
| (%) |
|
(%) |
(ZARm) |
| –20.00% |
|
9.80% |
226 |
| –15.00% |
|
10.41% |
220 |
| –10.00% |
|
11.02% |
213 |
| – 5.00% |
|
11.63% |
207 |
| 0.00% |
|
12.25% |
201 |
| 5.00% |
|
12.86% |
195 |
| 10.00% |
|
13.47% |
190 |
| 15.00% |
|
14.08% |
185 |
| 20.00% |
|
14.69% |
180 |
| |
|
|
|
Table 14.87 Arnot Colliery: Single Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC
|
| Sensitivity Range – Revenue |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| Sensitivity Range – Total Working Cost |
–15% |
–10% |
–5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
| Sensitivity Range – Capital Expenditure |
–15% |
–10% |
–5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
| |
|
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
| Revenue |
|
(851) |
(500) |
(150) |
201 |
552 |
903 |
1,253 |
| Total Working Cost |
|
687 |
525 |
363 |
201 |
39 |
(123) |
(285) |
|
Capital expenditure costs are borne by Eskom. |
| |
|
|
Table 14.88
|
Arnot Colliery: Twin Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC (Revenue, Working Costs)
|
|
|
NPV (ZARm)
|
|
Revenue Sensitivity
|
| |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
–15% |
(365) |
(14) |
336 |
687 |
1,038 |
1,389 |
1,739 |
| Total |
–10% |
(527) |
(176) |
174 |
525 |
876 |
1,227 |
1,577 |
| Working |
–5% |
(689) |
(338) |
12 |
363 |
714 |
1,065 |
1,415 |
| Costs |
0% |
(851) |
(500) |
(150) |
201 |
552 |
903 |
1,253 |
| Sensitivity |
5% |
(1,013) |
(662) |
(312) |
39 |
390 |
741 |
1,091 |
| |
10% |
(1,175) |
(824) |
(474) |
(123) |
228 |
579 |
929 |
| |
15% |
(1,337) |
(986) |
(636) |
(285) |
66 |
417 |
767 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
14.7.8 |
Matla Colliery
Table 14.89 Matla Colliery: NPV at Various Discount Factors
|
| Discount Factor |
|
NPV |
| (%) |
|
(ZARm) |
| 3.00% |
|
1,304 |
| 6.00% |
|
918 |
| 9.00% |
|
681 |
| 12.25% |
|
517 |
| 15.00% |
|
424 |
| 18.00% |
|
351 |
| 21.00% |
|
298 |
| |
|
|
Table 14.90 Matla Colliery: NPV Sensitivity to WACC
|
| Sensitivity |
Discount Factor |
NPV |
| (%) |
(%) |
(ZARm) |
| –20.00% |
9.80% |
633 |
| –15.00% |
10.41% |
601 |
| –10.00% |
11.02% |
571 |
| – 5.00% |
11.63% |
543 |
| 0.00% |
12.25% |
517 |
| 5.00% |
12.86% |
494 |
| 10.00% |
13.47% |
472 |
| 15.00% |
14.08% |
452 |
| 20.00% |
14.69% |
433 |
|
|
Table 14.91 Matla Colliery: Single Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC
|
| Sensitivity Range – Revenue |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| Sensitivity Range – Total Working Cost |
–15% |
–10% |
–5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
| Sensitivity Range – Capital Expenditure |
–15% |
–10% |
–5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
|
|
(ZARm)
|
(ZARm)
|
(ZARm)
|
(ZARm)
|
(ZARm)
|
(ZARm)
|
(ZARm)
|
|
Revenue |
(1,948) |
(1,126) |
(305) |
517 |
1,339 |
2,161 |
2,983 |
|
Total Working Cost |
1,639 |
1,265 |
891 |
517 |
143 |
(230) |
(604) |
|
Capital expenditure costs are borne by Eskom. |
|
|
Table 14.92 Matla Colliery: Twin Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC (Revenue, Working Costs)
|
| NPV (ZARm)
|
|
Revenue Sensitivity
|
| |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
–15% |
(827) |
(5) |
817 |
1,639 |
2,461 |
3,282 |
4,104 |
| Total |
–10% |
(1,200) |
(379) |
443 |
1,265 |
2,087 |
2,909 |
3,730 |
| Working |
–5% |
(1,574) |
(753) |
69 |
891 |
1,713 |
2,535 |
3,357 |
| Costs |
0% |
(1,948) |
(1,126) |
(305) |
517 |
1,339 |
2,161 |
2,983 |
| Sensitivity |
5% |
(2,322) |
(1,500) |
(678) |
143 |
965 |
1,787 |
2,609 |
| |
10% |
(2,696) |
(1,874) |
(1,052) |
(230) |
591 |
1,413 |
2,235 |
| |
15% |
(3,070) |
(2,248) |
(1,426) |
(604) |
218 |
1,039 |
1,861 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
14.7.9
|
New Clydesdale Colliery
Table 14.93 New Clydesdale Colliery: NPV at Various Discount Factors
|
| Discount Factor |
|
NPV |
| (%) |
|
(ZARm) |
| 3.00% |
|
739 |
| 6.00% |
|
655 |
| 9.00% |
|
584 |
| 12.25% |
|
520 |
| 15.00% |
|
474 |
| 18.00% |
|
431 |
| 21.00% |
|
394 |
|
|
Table 14.94 New Clydesdale Colliery: NPV Sensitivity to WACC
|
| Sensitivity |
Discount Factor |
NPV |
| (%) |
(%) |
(ZARm) |
| –20.00% |
9.80% |
567 |
| –15.00% |
10.41% |
554 |
| –10.00% |
11.03% |
542 |
| – 5.00% |
11.64% |
531 |
| 0.00% |
12.25% |
520 |
| 5.00% |
12.86% |
509 |
| 10.00% |
13.48% |
498 |
| 15.00% |
14.09% |
488 |
| 20.00% |
14.70% |
478 |
| |
Table 14.95 New Clydesdale Colliery: Single Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC
|
| Sensitivity Range – Revenue |
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| Sensitivity Range – Total Working Cost |
–15% |
–10% |
–5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
| Sensitivity Range – Capital Expenditure |
–15% |
–10% |
–5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
| |
|
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
| Revenue |
|
(50) |
140 |
330 |
520 |
709 |
899 |
1,089 |
| Total Working Cost |
698 |
638 |
579 |
520 |
460 |
401 |
341 |
| Capital Expenditure |
536 |
530 |
525 |
520 |
514 |
509 |
503 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 14.96 |
New Clydesdale Colliery: Twin Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC (Revenue,Working Costs) |
|
| NPV (ZARm) |
|
|
|
Revenue Sensitivity |
|
|
| |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
–15% |
128 |
318 |
508 |
698 |
888 |
1,077 |
1,267 |
| Total |
–10% |
69 |
259 |
448 |
638 |
828 |
1,018 |
1,208 |
| Working |
–5% |
9 |
199 |
389 |
579 |
769 |
959 |
1,149 |
| Costs |
0% |
(50) |
140 |
330 |
520 |
709 |
899 |
1,089 |
| Sensitivity |
5% |
(109) |
80 |
270 |
460 |
650 |
840 |
1,030 |
| |
10% |
(169) |
21 |
211 |
401 |
591 |
780 |
970 |
| |
15% |
(228) |
(38) |
151 |
341 |
531 |
721 |
911 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 14.97
|
New Clydesdale Colliery: Twin Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the
WACC (Revenue, Capital Expenditure)
|
|
| NPV (ZARm) |
|
|
|
Revenue Sensitivity |
|
|
|
| |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
–15% |
(34) |
156 |
346 |
536 |
726 |
916 |
1,105 |
| Capital |
–10% |
(39) |
151 |
341 |
530 |
720 |
910 |
1,100 |
| Expenditure |
–5% |
(45) |
145 |
335 |
525 |
715 |
905 |
1,095 |
| |
0% |
(50) |
140 |
330 |
520 |
709 |
899 |
1,089 |
| |
5% |
(55) |
134 |
324 |
514 |
704 |
894 |
1,084 |
| |
10% |
(61) |
129 |
319 |
509 |
699 |
888 |
1,078 |
| |
15% |
(66) |
124 |
313 |
503 |
693 |
883 |
1,073 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
14.7.10
|
North Block Complex
Table 14.98 North Block Complex: NPV at Various Discount Factors
|
| Discount Factor |
|
NPV |
| (%) |
|
(ZARm) |
| |
|
|
| 3.00% |
|
102 |
| 6.00% |
|
97 |
| 9.00% |
|
93 |
| 12.25% |
|
89 |
| 15.00% |
|
85 |
| 18.00% |
|
82 |
| 21.00% |
|
79 |
| |
|
|
Table 14.99 North Block Complex: NPV Sensitivity to WACC
|
| Sensitivity |
Discount Factor |
NPV |
| (%) |
(%) |
(ZARm) |
| –20.00% |
9.80% |
92 |
| –15.00% |
10.41% |
91 |
| –10.00% |
11.02% |
90 |
| – 5.00% |
11.63% |
89 |
| 0.00% |
12.25% |
89 |
| 5.00% |
12.86% |
88 |
| 10.00% |
13.47% |
87 |
| 15.00% |
14.08% |
86 |
| 20.00% |
14.69% |
86 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 14.100 North Block Complex: Single Parameter NPV
Sensitivity at the WACC
|
| Sensitivity Range – Revenue |
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| Sensitivity Range – Total Working Cost |
–15% |
–10% |
–5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
| Sensitivity Range – Capital Expenditure |
–15% |
–10% |
–5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
| |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
| Revenue |
(64) |
(13) |
38 |
89 |
139 |
190 |
241 |
| Total Working Cost |
153 |
132 |
110 |
89 |
67 |
45 |
24 |
| Capital Expenditure |
92 |
91 |
90 |
89 |
87 |
86 |
85 |
| |
Table 14.101
|
North Block Complex: Twin Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC
(Revenue, Working Costs)
|
|
| NPV (ZARm) |
|
Revenue Sensitivity |
| |
|
30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
15% |
1 |
52 |
103 |
153 |
204 |
255 |
306 |
| Total |
–10% |
(21) |
30 |
81 |
132 |
183 |
234 |
285 |
| Working |
–5% |
(42) |
8 |
59 |
110 |
161 |
212 |
263 |
| Costs |
0% |
(64) |
(13) |
38 |
89 |
139 |
190 |
241 |
| Sensitivity |
5% |
(86) |
(35) |
16 |
67 |
118 |
169 |
220 |
| |
10% |
(107) |
(56) |
(6) |
45 |
96 |
147 |
198 |
| |
15% |
(129) |
(78) |
(27) |
24 |
75 |
126 |
176 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 14.102
|
North Block Complex: Twin Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC
(Revenue, Capital Expenditure)
|
|
| NPV (ZARm) |
|
Revenue Sensitivity |
| |
|
30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
15% |
(60) |
(9) |
41 |
92 |
143 |
194 |
245 |
| Capital |
–10% |
(62) |
(11) |
40 |
91 |
142 |
193 |
244 |
| Expenditure |
–5% |
(63) |
(12) |
39 |
90 |
141 |
192 |
243 |
| |
0% |
(64) |
(13) |
38 |
89 |
139 |
190 |
241 |
| |
5% |
(65) |
(14) |
36 |
87 |
138 |
189 |
240 |
| |
10% |
(67) |
(16) |
35 |
86 |
137 |
188 |
239 |
| |
15% |
(68) |
(17) |
34 |
85 |
136 |
187 |
238 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
14.7.11
|
Coal – Sintel Char Project
Table 14.103 Sintel Char Project: NPV at Various Discount Factors
|
| Discount Factor |
|
NPV |
| (%) |
|
(ZARm) |
| 4.00% |
|
633 |
| 8.00% |
|
367 |
| 12.00% |
|
213 |
| 16.20% |
|
116 |
| 20.00% |
|
61 |
| 24.00% |
|
23 |
| 28.00% |
|
(3) |
| |
Table 14.104 Sintel Char Project: NPV Sensitivity to WACC
|
| Sensitivity |
Discount Factor |
NPV |
| (%) |
(%) |
(ZARm) |
| –20% |
12.96% |
186 |
| –15% |
13.77% |
166 |
| –10% |
14.58% |
148 |
| – 5% |
15.39% |
131 |
| 0% |
16.20% |
116 |
| 5% |
17.01% |
102 |
| 10% |
17.82% |
90 |
| 15% |
18.63% |
78 |
| 20% |
19.44% |
68 |
|
|
Table 14.105 Sintel Char Project: Single Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC
|
| Sensitivity Range – Revenue |
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| Sensitivity Range – Total Working Cost |
–15% |
–10% |
–5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
| Sensitivity Range – Capital Expenditure |
–15% |
–10% |
–5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
| |
|
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Revenue |
(186) |
(85) |
15 |
116 |
217 |
317 |
418 |
| Total Working Cost |
214 |
182 |
149 |
116 |
83 |
50 |
18 |
| Capital Expenditure |
139 |
131 |
124 |
116 |
108 |
101 |
93 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 14.106 Sintel Char Project: Twin Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC (Revenue, Working Costs)
|
| NPV (ZARm) |
|
|
|
Revenue Sensitivity |
|
|
|
| |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
–15% |
(87) |
13 |
114 |
214 |
315 |
416 |
516 |
| Total |
–10% |
(120) |
(20) |
81 |
182 |
282 |
383 |
483 |
| Working |
–5% |
(153) |
(52) |
48 |
149 |
249 |
350 |
451 |
| Costs |
0% |
(186) |
(85) |
15 |
116 |
217 |
317 |
418 |
| Sensitivity |
5% |
(218) |
(118) |
(17) |
83 |
184 |
284 |
385 |
| |
10% |
(251) |
(151) |
(50) |
50 |
151 |
252 |
352 |
| |
15% |
(284) |
(183) |
(83) |
18 |
118 |
219 |
319 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 14.107 Sintel Char Project: Twin Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC (Revenue,
Capital Expenditure)
|
| NPV (ZARm) |
|
Revenue Sensitivity |
| |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
–15% |
(163) |
(62) |
38 |
139 |
239 |
340 |
441 |
| Capital |
–10% |
(171) |
(70) |
31 |
131 |
232 |
332 |
433 |
| Expenditure |
–5% |
(178) |
(78) |
23 |
124 |
224 |
325 |
425 |
| |
0% |
(186) |
(85) |
15 |
116 |
217 |
317 |
418 |
| |
5% |
(193) |
(93) |
8 |
108 |
209 |
310 |
410 |
| |
10% |
(201) |
(100) |
0 |
101 |
201 |
302 |
403 |
| |
15% |
(208) |
(108) |
(7) |
93 |
194 |
295 |
395 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 14.108 Sintel Char Project: Twin Parameter IRR Sensitivity (Revenue,
Working Costs)
|
| IRR (%) |
|
Revenue Sensitivity |
| |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
–15% |
3.7% |
17.7% |
27.4% |
36.0% |
44.0% |
51.6% |
58.9% |
| Total |
–10% |
0.0% |
13.9% |
24.4% |
33.2% |
41.3% |
49.0% |
56.4% |
| Working |
–5% |
0.0% |
9.7% |
21.2% |
30.4% |
38.6% |
46.4% |
53.9% |
| Cost |
0% |
0.0% |
4.4% |
17.9% |
27.5% |
35.9% |
43.8% |
51.3% |
| Sensitivity |
5% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
14.2% |
24.5% |
33.2% |
41.1% |
48.7% |
| |
10% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
10.1% |
21.4% |
30.4% |
38.5% |
46.2% |
| |
15% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
5.1% |
18.1% |
27.5% |
35.8% |
43.6% |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 14.109 Sintel Char Project: Twin Parameter IRR Sensitivity (Revenue, Capital Expenditure)
|
|
IRR (%)
|
|
Revenue Sensitivity
|
|
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
|
–15% |
0.0% |
6.4% |
20.9% |
31.5% |
41.0% |
50.0% |
58.5% |
|
Capital
|
–10% |
0.0% |
5.7% |
19.8% |
30.0% |
39.2% |
47.7% |
55.9% |
|
Expenditure
|
–5% |
0.0% |
5.1% |
18.8% |
28.7% |
37.5% |
45.6% |
53.5% |
|
0% |
0.0% |
4.4% |
17.9% |
27.5% |
35.9% |
43.8% |
51.3% |
|
5% |
0.0% |
3.8% |
17.0% |
26.3% |
34.5% |
42.1% |
49.3% |
|
10% |
0.0% |
3.3% |
16.2% |
25.3% |
33.2% |
40.5% |
47.5% |
| |
15% |
0.0% |
2.8% |
15.5% |
24.3% |
32.0% |
39.0% |
45.8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
14.7.12
|
Coal – Inyanda Project
Table 14.110 Inyanda Project: NPV at Various Discount Factors
|
| Discount Factor |
|
NPV |
| (%) |
|
(ZARm) |
| 4.00% |
|
818 |
| 8.00% |
|
596 |
| 12.00% |
|
443 |
| 16.20% |
|
330 |
| 20.00% |
|
255 |
| 24.00% |
|
197 |
| 28.00% |
|
154 |
| |
|
|
Table 14.111 Inyanda Project: NPV Sensitivity to WACC
|
| Sensitivity |
Discount Factor |
NPV |
| (%) |
(%) |
(ZARm) |
| –20% |
12.96% |
413 |
| –15% |
13.77% |
390 |
| –10% |
14.58% |
369 |
| – 5% |
15.39% |
348 |
| 0% |
16.20% |
330 |
| 5% |
17.01% |
312 |
| 10% |
17.82% |
295 |
| 15% |
18.63% |
280 |
| 20% |
19.44% |
265 |
|
|
Table 14.112 Inyanda Project: Single Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC
|
| Sensitivity Range – Revenue |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| Sensitivity Range – Total Working Cost |
|
–15% |
–10% |
–5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
| Sensitivity Range – Capital Expenditure |
|
–15% |
–10% |
–5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
| |
|
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
| Revenue |
|
(128) |
24 |
177 |
330 |
482 |
635 |
788 |
| Total Working Cost |
|
456 |
414 |
372 |
330 |
287 |
245 |
203 |
| Capital Expenditure |
|
359 |
349 |
339 |
330 |
320 |
310 |
300 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 14.113 Inyanda Project: Twin Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC (Revenue, Working Costs)
|
|
NPV (ZARm)
|
|
Revenue Sensitivity
|
| |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
–15% |
(2) |
150 |
303 |
456 |
609 |
761 |
914 |
| Total |
–10% |
(44) |
108 |
261 |
414 |
566 |
719 |
872 |
| Working |
–5% |
(86) |
66 |
219 |
372 |
524 |
677 |
830 |
| Costs |
0% |
(128) |
24 |
177 |
330 |
482 |
635 |
788 |
| Sensitivity |
5% |
(171) |
(18) |
135 |
287 |
440 |
593 |
745 |
| |
10% |
(213) |
(60) |
93 |
245 |
398 |
551 |
703 |
| |
15% |
(255) |
(102) |
51 |
203 |
356 |
509 |
661 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 14.114 Inyanda Project: Twin Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC (Revenue, Capital Expenditure)
|
| NPV (ZARm) |
|
Revenue Sensitivity |
| |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
–15% |
(99) |
53 |
206 |
359 |
511 |
664 |
817 |
| Capital |
–10% |
(109) |
44 |
196 |
349 |
502 |
654 |
807 |
| Expenditure |
–5% |
(119) |
34 |
187 |
339 |
492 |
645 |
797 |
| |
0% |
(128) |
24 |
177 |
330 |
482 |
635 |
788 |
| |
5% |
(138) |
14 |
167 |
320 |
472 |
625 |
778 |
| |
10% |
(148) |
5 |
157 |
310 |
463 |
615 |
768 |
| |
15% |
(158) |
(5) |
148 |
300 |
453 |
606 |
758 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 14.115 Inyanda Project: Twin Parameter IRR Sensitivity (Revenue, Working Costs)
|
| IRR (%) |
|
Revenue Sensitivity |
| |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
–15% |
15.8% |
43.5% |
73.7% |
107.5% |
144.6% |
184.6% |
226.8% |
| Total |
–10% |
8.1% |
35.8% |
65.3% |
98.3% |
134.8% |
174.1% |
215.9% |
| Working |
–5% |
0.0% |
28.2% |
57.1% |
89.3% |
125.0% |
163.8% |
205.1% |
| Cost |
0% |
0.0% |
20.6% |
49.1% |
80.5% |
115.4% |
153.6% |
194.3% |
| Sensitivity |
5% |
0.0% |
12.9% |
41.1% |
71.8% |
106.0% |
143.5% |
183.7% |
| |
10% |
0.0% |
4.9% |
33.3% |
63.3% |
96.7% |
133.5% |
173.2% |
| |
15% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
25.6% |
55.0% |
87.6% |
123.7% |
162.7% |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 14.116 Inyanda Project: Twin Parameter IRR Sensitivity (Revenue, Capital Expenditure)
|
|
IRR (%) |
|
Revenue Sensitivity |
|
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
|
–15% |
0.0% |
28.1% |
64.1% |
104.8% |
150.0% |
198.7% |
250.1% |
|
Capital
|
–10% |
0.0% |
25.2% |
58.3% |
95.4% |
136.7% |
181.5% |
229.0% |
|
Expenditure
|
–5% |
0.0% |
22.8% |
53.3% |
87.4% |
125.3% |
166.6% |
210.5% |
|
0% |
0.0% |
20.6% |
49.1% |
80.5% |
115.4% |
153.6% |
194.3% |
|
5% |
0.0% |
18.7% |
45.3% |
74.4% |
106.8% |
142.1% |
180.0% |
|
10% |
0.0% |
17.0% |
42.0% |
69.1% |
99.2% |
132.1% |
167.4% |
| |
15% |
0.0% |
15.4% |
39.1% |
64.5% |
92.5% |
123.1% |
156.2% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
14.7.13
|
Coal – Mafube JV Phase II Project
Table 14.117 Mafube JV Phase II Project: NPV at Various Discount Factors – Scenario I
|
| Discount Factor |
|
NPV |
| (%) |
|
(ZARm) |
| 4.00% |
|
2,405 |
| 8.00% |
|
1,465 |
| 12.00% |
|
861 |
| 16.20% |
|
446 |
| 20.00% |
|
194 |
| 24.00% |
|
10 |
| 28.00% |
|
(118) |
| |
|
|
Table 14.118 Mafube JV Phase II Project: NPV Sensitivity to WACC – Scenario I
|
| Sensitivity |
Discount Factor |
NPV |
| (%) |
(%) |
(ZARm) |
| –20.00% |
12.96% |
750 |
| –15.00% |
13.77% |
664 |
| –10.00% |
14.58% |
586 |
| – 5.00% |
15.39% |
513 |
| 0.00% |
16.20% |
446 |
| 5.00% |
17.01% |
384 |
| 10.00% |
17.82% |
327 |
| 15.00% |
18.63% |
274 |
| 20.00% |
19.44% |
225 |
| |
Table 14.119
|
Mafube JV Phase II Project: Single Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC – Scenario I
|
|
| Sensitivity Range – Revenue |
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| Sensitivity Range – Total Working Cost |
–15% |
–10% |
–5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
| Sensitivity Range – Capital Expenditure |
–15% |
–10% |
–5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
| |
|
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
| Revenue |
|
(1,204) |
(656) |
(108) |
446 |
989 |
1,537 |
2,085 |
| Total Working Cost |
|
910 |
753 |
597 |
446 |
284 |
128 |
(29) |
| Capital Expenditure |
|
671 |
594 |
517 |
446 |
364 |
287 |
210 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 14.120
|
Table 14.120 Mafube JV Phase II Project: Twin Parameter NPV Sensitivity
at the WACC (Revenue, Working Costs) – Scenario I
|
|
| NPV (ZARm) |
|
|
|
Revenue Sensitivity |
|
|
| |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
–15% |
(729) |
(181) |
367 |
915 |
1,463 |
2,012 |
2,560 |
| Total |
–10% |
(886) |
(337) |
211 |
759 |
1,307 |
1,855 |
2,403 |
| Working |
–5% |
(1,042) |
(494) |
54 |
602 |
1,151 |
1,699 |
2,247 |
| Costs |
0% |
(1,198) |
(650) |
(102) |
446 |
994 |
1,542 |
2,090 |
| Sensitivity |
5% |
(1,355) |
(807) |
(259) |
290 |
838 |
1,386 |
1,934 |
| |
10% |
(1,511) |
(963) |
(415) |
133 |
681 |
1,229 |
1,778 |
| |
15% |
(1,668) |
(1,119) |
(571) |
(23) |
525 |
1,073 |
1,621 |
| |
Table 14.121
|
Mafube JV Phase II Project: Twin Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC (Revenue, Capital Expenditure) – Scenario I
|
|
| NPV (ZARm) |
|
|
|
Revenue Sensitivity |
|
|
|
| |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
–15% |
(973) |
(425) |
123 |
671 |
1,219 |
1,767 |
2,316 |
| Capital |
–10% |
(1,050) |
(502) |
46 |
5944 |
1,142 |
1,691 |
2,239 |
| Expenditure |
–5% |
(1,127) |
(579) |
(31) |
517 |
1,066 |
1,614 |
2,162 |
| |
0% |
(1,204) |
(656) |
(108) |
446 |
989 |
1,537 |
2,085 |
| |
5% |
(1,281) |
(733) |
(184) |
364 |
912 |
1,460 |
2,008 |
| |
10% |
(1,358) |
(809) |
(261) |
287 |
835 |
1,383 |
1,931 |
| |
15% |
(1,434) |
(886) |
(338) |
210 |
758 |
1,306 |
1,854 |
|
|
Table 14.122
|
Mafube JV Phase II Project: Twin Parameter IRR Sensitivity (Revenue,
Working Costs) – Scenario I
|
|
| IRR (%) |
|
|
|
Revenue Sensitivity |
|
|
|
| |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
–15% |
0.0% |
12.5% |
22.9% |
31.6% |
39.7% |
47.4% |
55.1% |
| Total |
–10% |
0.0% |
8.7% |
20.2% |
29.2% |
37.5% |
45.3% |
53.0% |
| Working |
–5% |
0.0% |
4.2% |
17.3% |
26.8% |
35.3% |
43.1% |
50.8% |
| Cost |
0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
14.1% |
24.3% |
32.9% |
40.9% |
48.7% |
| Sensitivity |
5% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
10.6% |
21.6% |
30.6% |
38.7% |
46.6% |
| |
10% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
6.4% |
18.9% |
28.1% |
36.5% |
44.4% |
| |
15% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.9% |
15.7% |
25.6% |
34.2% |
42.2% |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 14.123
|
Mafube JV Phase II Project: Twin Parameter IRR Sensitivity (Revenue, Capital Expenditure) – Scenario I
|
|
| IRR (%) |
|
|
|
Revenue Sensitivity |
|
|
|
| |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
–15% |
0.0% |
2.5% |
19.1% |
30.2% |
39.6% |
49.3% |
58.3% |
| Capital |
–10% |
0.0% |
0.7% |
17.2% |
28.0% |
37.4% |
46.3% |
54.7% |
| Expenditure |
–5% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
15.5% |
26.0% |
35.0% |
43.4% |
51.6% |
| |
0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
14.0% |
24.3% |
32.9% |
40.9% |
48.7% |
| |
5% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
12.5% |
22.5% |
30.9% |
38.7% |
46.1% |
| |
10% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
11.2% |
21.0% |
29.1% |
36.6% |
43.7% |
| |
15% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
10.0% |
19.6% |
27.5% |
34.7% |
41.6% |
|
|
Table 14.124 Mafube JV Phase II Project: NPV at Various Discount Factors – Scenario II
|
| Discount Factor |
|
NPV |
| (%) |
|
(ZARm) |
| 4.00% |
|
4,800 |
| 8.00% |
|
2,759 |
| 12.00% |
|
1,600 |
| 16.20% |
|
882 |
| 20.00% |
|
480 |
| 24.00% |
|
202 |
| 28.00% |
|
18 |
| |
|
|
Table 14.125 Mafube JV Phase II Project: NPV Sensitivity to WACC – Scenario II
|
| Sensitivity |
Discount Factor |
NPV |
| (%) |
(%) |
(ZARm) |
| –20% |
12.96% |
1,401 |
| –15% |
13.77% |
1,252 |
| –10% |
14.58% |
1,116 |
| – 5% |
15.39% |
994 |
| 0% |
16.20% |
882 |
| 5% |
17.01% |
781 |
| 10% |
17.82% |
689 |
| 15% |
18.63% |
605 |
| 20% |
19.44% |
529 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 14.126 Mafube JV Phase II Project: Single Parameter NPV Sensitivity to WACC – Scenario II
|
| Sensitivity Range – Revenue |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| Sensitivity Range – Total Working Cost |
|
–15% |
–10% |
–5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
| Sensitivity Range – Capital Expenditure |
|
–15% |
–10% |
–5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
| |
|
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
| Revenue |
|
(1,067) |
(417) |
233 |
882 |
1,532 |
2,182 |
2,832 |
| Total Working Cost |
|
1,426 |
1,245 |
1,064 |
882 |
701 |
520 |
339 |
| Capital Expenditure |
|
1,107 |
1,032 |
957 |
882 |
808 |
733 |
658 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 14.127
|
Mafube JV Phase II Project: Twin Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC (Revenue, Working Costs) – Scenario II
|
|
| NPV (ZARm) |
|
Revenue Sensitivity |
| |
|
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| |
REVENUE |
(524) |
126 |
776 |
1,426 |
2,075 |
2,725 |
3,375 |
| Total |
88248% |
(705) |
(55) |
595 |
1,245 |
1,894 |
2,544 |
3,194 |
| Working |
–15% |
(886) |
(236) |
414 |
1,064 |
1,713 |
2,363 |
3,013 |
| Costs |
–10% |
(1,067) |
(417) |
233 |
882 |
1,532 |
2,182 |
2,832 |
| Sensitivity |
–5% |
(1,248) |
(598) |
52 |
701 |
1,351 |
2,001 |
2,651 |
| |
0% |
(1,429) |
(779) |
(129) |
520 |
1,170 |
1,820 |
2,470 |
| |
5% |
(1,610) |
(960) |
(310) |
339 |
988 |
1,639 |
2,289 |
| |
Table 14.128
|
Mafube JV Phase II Project: Twin Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC (Revenue, Capital Expenditure) – Scenario II
|
|
|
NPV (ZARm)
|
|
Revenue Sensitivity |
|
|
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
|
REVENUE |
(842) |
(192) |
457 |
1,107 |
1,757 |
2,407 |
3,056 |
|
88248% |
(917) |
(267) |
383 |
1,032 |
1,682 |
2,332 |
2,982 |
|
–15% |
(992) |
(342) |
308 |
957 |
1,607 |
2,257 |
2,907 |
|
Capital Expenditure
|
–10% |
(1,067) |
(417) |
233 |
882 |
1,532 |
2,182 |
2,832 |
|
–5% |
(1,142) |
(492) |
158 |
808 |
1,457 |
2,107 |
2,757 |
|
0% |
(1,217) |
(567) |
83 |
733 |
1,382 |
2,032 |
2,682 |
| |
5% |
(1,291) |
(642) |
8 |
658 |
1,308 |
1,957 |
2,607 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 14.129
|
Mafube JV Phase II Project: Twin Parameter IRR Sensitivity (Revenue, Working Costs) –Scenario II
|
|
| IRR (%) |
|
Sensitivity |
| |
|
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| |
REVENUE |
6.2% |
18.1% |
27.0% |
34.9% |
42.4% |
49.7% |
56.9% |
| Total |
88248% |
0.6% |
15.3% |
24.7% |
32.8% |
40.4% |
47.8% |
55.0% |
| Working |
–5% |
0.0% |
12.1% |
22.3% |
30.7% |
38.4% |
45.8% |
53.0% |
| Cost |
–10% |
0.0% |
8.4% |
19.8% |
28.5% |
36.4% |
43.8% |
51.1% |
| Sensitivity |
–55% |
0.0% |
3.5% |
17.0% |
26.2% |
34.3% |
41.9% |
49.2% |
| |
0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
14.0% |
23.9% |
32.2% |
39.8% |
47.2% |
| |
5% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
10.5% |
21.4% |
30.0% |
37.8% |
45.2% |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 14.130
|
Mafube JV Phase II Project: Twin Parameter IRR Sensitivity (Revenue,
Capital Expenditure) – Scenario II
|
|
| IRR (%) |
|
Revenue Sensitivity |
| |
|
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| |
REVENUE |
0.0% |
12.0% |
24.4% |
34.2% |
43.2% |
51.9% |
60.3% |
| Capital Expenditure |
88248% |
0.0% |
10.7% |
22.7% |
32.1% |
40.7% |
48.9% |
56.9% |
| |
–15% |
0.0% |
9.5% |
21.1% |
30.3% |
38.4% |
46.2% |
53.8% |
| |
–10% |
0.0% |
8.4% |
19.8% |
28.5% |
36.4% |
43.8% |
51.1% |
| Sensitivity |
–5% |
0.0% |
7.4% |
18.5% |
26.9% |
34.5% |
41.7% |
48.6% |
| |
0% |
0.0% |
6.5% |
17.4% |
25.5% |
32.8% |
39.7% |
46.4% |
| |
5% |
0.0% |
5.6% |
16.3% |
24.2% |
31.3% |
37.9% |
44.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
14.7.14
|
Coal – Belfast Project
Table 14.131 Belfast Project: NPV at Various Discount Factors
|
| Discount Factor |
NPV |
| (%) |
(ZARm) |
| 4.00% |
1,186 |
| 8.00% |
634 |
| 12.00% |
360 |
| 16.20% |
208 |
| 20.00% |
130 |
| 24.00% |
80 |
| 28.00% |
48 |
| |
|
Table 14.132 Belfast Project: NPV Sensitivity to WACC
|
| Sensitivity |
Discount Factor |
NPV |
| (%) |
|
(%) |
(ZARm) |
| (4.00) |
–20% |
12.96% |
317 |
| (3.00) |
–15% |
13.77% |
285 |
| (2.00) |
–10% |
14.58% |
256 |
| (1 00) |
– 5% |
15.39% |
231 |
| |
0% |
16.20% |
208 |
| 1.00 |
5% |
17.01% |
188 |
| 2.00 |
10% |
17.82% |
170 |
| 3.00 |
15% |
18.63% |
154 |
| 4.00 |
20% |
19.44% |
139 |
| |
Table 14.133 Belfast Project: Single Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC
|
| Sensitivity Range – Revenue |
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| Sensitivity Range – Total Working Cost |
–15% |
–10% |
–5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
| Sensitivity Range – Capital Expenditure |
–15% |
–10% |
–5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
| |
|
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
| Revenue |
|
(332) |
(152) |
28 |
208 |
388 |
568 |
749 |
| Total Working Cost |
|
(62) |
28 |
118 |
208 |
298 |
388 |
478 |
| Capital Expenditure |
|
224 |
219 |
214 |
208 |
203 |
198 |
192 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 14.134 Belfast Project: Twin Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC (Revenue, Working Costs)
|
|
NPV (ZARm) |
|
Revenue Sensitivity |
| |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
–15% |
(122) |
58 |
238 |
418 |
598 |
778 |
958 |
| Total |
–10% |
(192) |
(12) |
168 |
348 |
528 |
708 |
888 |
| Working |
–5% |
(262) |
(82) |
98 |
278 |
458 |
638 |
819 |
| Costs |
0% |
(332) |
(152) |
28 |
208 |
388 |
568 |
749 |
| Sensitivity |
5% |
(402) |
(222) |
(42) |
138 |
318 |
499 |
679 |
| |
10% |
(472) |
(292) |
(112) |
68 |
248 |
429 |
609 |
| |
15% |
(542) |
(362) |
(182) |
(2) |
179 |
359 |
539 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 14.135 Belfast Project: Twin Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC (Revenue,
Capital Expenditure)
|
| NPV (ZARm) |
|
|
|
Revenue Sensitivity |
|
|
|
| |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
–15% |
(316) |
(136) |
44 |
224 |
404 |
584 |
764 |
| Capital |
–10% |
(322) |
(141) |
39 |
219 |
399 |
579 |
759 |
| Expenditure |
–5% |
(327) |
(147) |
33 |
214 |
394 |
574 |
754 |
| |
0% |
(332) |
(152) |
28 |
208 |
388 |
568 |
749 |
| |
5% |
(337) |
(157) |
23 |
203 |
383 |
563 |
743 |
| |
10% |
(343) |
(163) |
18 |
198 |
378 |
558 |
738 |
| |
15% |
(348) |
(168) |
12 |
192 |
372 |
553 |
733 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 14.136 Belfast Project: Twin Parameter IRR Sensitivity (Revenue, Working Costs)
|
| IRR (%) |
|
Revenue Sensitivity |
| |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
–15% |
0.0% |
24.6% |
47.2% |
68.4% |
89.3% |
110.6% |
132.5% |
| Total |
–10% |
0.0% |
14.3% |
38.7% |
60.1% |
81.0% |
102.0% |
123.7% |
| Working |
–5% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
29.9% |
51.9% |
72.8% |
93.7% |
115.0% |
| Cost |
0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
20.4% |
43.5% |
64.6% |
85.4% |
106.4% |
| Sensitivity |
5% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
9.0% |
34.9% |
56.4% |
77.2% |
98.0% |
| |
10% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
25.9% |
48.1% |
69.0% |
89.7% |
| |
15% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
16.0% |
39.7% |
60.9% |
81.5% |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 14.137 Belfast Project: Twin Parameter IRR Sensitivity (Revenue, Capital Expenditure)
|
|
IRR (%)
|
|
Revenue Sensitivity
|
| |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
–15% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
23.7% |
49.9% |
74.3% |
98.7% |
123.8% |
| Capital |
–10% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
22.5% |
47.5% |
70.8% |
93.8% |
117.4% |
| Expenditure |
–5% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
21.4% |
45.4% |
67.5% |
89.4% |
111.6% |
| |
0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
20.4% |
43.5% |
64.6% |
85.4% |
106.4% |
| |
5% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
19.5% |
41.7% |
62.0% |
81.8% |
101.8% |
| |
10% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
18.6% |
40.1% |
59.5% |
78.5% |
97.5% |
| |
15% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
17.8% |
38.6% |
57.3% |
75.5% |
93.7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
14.7.15
|
Coal Ingcambu Project
Table 14.138 Ingcambu Project: NPV at Various Discount Factors
|
| Discount Factor |
|
NPV |
| (%) |
|
(ZARm) |
| 3.00% |
|
11.81 |
| 6.00% |
|
11.48 |
| 9.00% |
|
11.16 |
| 12.25% |
|
10.84 |
| 15.00% |
|
10.58 |
| 18.00% |
|
10.31 |
| 21.00% |
|
10.06 |
| |
|
|
Table 14.139 Ingcambu Project: NPV Sensitivity to WACC
|
| Sensitivity |
Discount Factor |
NPV |
| (%) |
(%) |
(ZARm) |
| 20% |
9.80% |
11.08 |
| 15% |
10.41% |
11.02 |
| 10% |
11.03% |
10.96 |
| 5% |
11.64% |
10.90 |
| 0% |
12.25% |
10.84 |
| 5% |
12.86% |
10.78 |
| 10% |
13.48% |
10.72 |
| 15% |
14.09% |
10.67 |
| 20% |
14.70% |
10.6 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 14.140 Ingcambu Project: Single Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sensitivity Range Revenue |
|
30% |
20% |
10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| Sensitivity Range Total Working Cost |
15% |
10% |
5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
| Sensitivity Range Capital Expenditure |
15% |
10% |
5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
| |
|
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
| Revenue |
|
(14) |
(6) |
3 |
11 |
19 |
27 |
35 |
| Total Working Cost |
|
22 |
18 |
14 |
11 |
7 |
4 |
0 |
| Capital Expenditure |
|
11 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
| |
|
|
Table 14.141 Ingcambu Project: Twin Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC
(Revenue, Working Costs)
|
| NPV (ZARm) |
|
Revenue Sensitivity |
| |
|
30% |
20% |
10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
15% |
(3) |
5 |
13 |
22 |
30 |
38 |
46 |
| Total |
10% |
(7) |
2 |
10 |
18 |
26 |
34 |
43 |
| Working |
5% |
(10) |
(2) |
6 |
14 |
23 |
31 |
39 |
| Costs |
0% |
(14) |
(6) |
3 |
11 |
19 |
27 |
35 |
| Sensitivity |
5% |
(17) |
(9) |
(1) |
7 |
15 |
24 |
32 |
| |
10% |
(21) |
(13) |
(5) |
4 |
12 |
20 |
28 |
| |
15% |
(25) |
(16) |
(8) |
|
8 |
16 |
25 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
14.7.16 |
Heavy Minerals – Hillendale Mine and Fairbreeze Project
Table 14.142 Hillendale Mine and Fairbreeze Project: NPV at Various Discount Factors
|
| Discount Factor |
|
NPV |
| (%) |
|
(ZARm) |
| 3.00% |
|
460 |
| 6.00% |
|
326 |
| 9.00% |
|
225 |
| 12.25% |
|
143 |
| 15.00% |
|
91 |
| 18.00% |
|
49 |
| 22.00% |
|
17 |
| |
Table 14.143 Hillendale Mine, Fairbreeze Project and Block P: NPV Sensitivity to WACC – Scenario I
|
| Sensitivity |
Discount Factor |
NPV |
| (%) |
(%) |
(ZARm) |
| –20% |
9.80% |
202 |
| –15% |
10.41% |
186 |
| –10% |
11.02% |
171 |
| – 5% |
11.63% |
157 |
| 0.00% |
12.25% |
143 |
| 5% |
12.86% |
130 |
| 10% |
13.47% |
118 |
| 15% |
14.08% |
107 |
| 20% |
14.69% |
96 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 14.144
|
Hillendale Mine and Fairbreeze Project: Single Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC
|
|
| Sensitivity Range – Revenue |
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| Sensitivity Range – Total Working Cost |
–15% |
–10% |
–5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
| Sensitivity Range – Capital Expenditure |
–15% |
–10% |
–5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
| |
|
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
| Revenue |
|
(1,106) |
(689) |
(273) |
143 |
560 |
976 |
1,392 |
| Total Working Cost |
577 |
433 |
288 |
143 |
(1) |
(146) |
(291) |
| Capital Expenditure |
326 |
265 |
204 |
143 |
82 |
22 |
(39) |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 14.145
|
Hillendale Mine, Fairbreeze Project: Twin Parameter NPV Sensitivity
at the WACC (Revenue, Working Costs)
|
|
| NPV (ZARm) |
|
Revenue Sensitivity |
| |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
–15% |
(672) |
(255) |
161 |
577 |
993 |
1,410 |
1,826 |
| Total |
–10% |
(816) |
(400) |
16 |
433 |
849 |
1,265 |
1,681 |
| Working |
–5% |
(961) |
(545) |
(128) |
288 |
704 |
1,120 |
1,537 |
| Costs |
0% |
(1,106) |
(689) |
(273) |
143 |
560 |
976 |
1,392 |
| Sensitivity |
5% |
(1,250) |
(834) |
(4118) |
(1) |
415 |
831 |
1,247 |
| |
10% |
(1,395) |
(979) |
(562) |
(146) |
270 |
687 |
1,103 |
| |
15% |
(1,540) |
(1,123) |
(707) |
(291) |
126 |
542 |
958 |
| |
Table 14.146
|
Hillendale Mine, Fairbreeze Project and Block P: Twin Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC (Revenue, Capital Expenditure)
|
|
| NPV (ZARm) |
|
Revenue Sensitivity |
| |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
–15% |
(923) |
(507) |
(91) |
326 |
742 |
1,158 |
1,575 |
| Capital |
–10% |
(984) |
(568) |
(151) |
265 |
681 |
1,097 |
1,514 |
| Expenditure |
–5% |
(1,045) |
(629) |
(212) |
204 |
620 |
1,037 |
1,453 |
| |
0% |
(1,106) |
(689) |
(273) |
1143 |
560 |
976 |
1,392 |
| |
5% |
(1,166) |
(750) |
(334) |
82 |
499 |
915 |
1,331 |
| |
10% |
(1,227) |
(811) |
(395) |
22 |
438 |
854 |
1,270 |
| |
15% |
(1,288) |
(872) |
(456) |
(39) |
377 |
793 |
1,264 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
14.7.17
|
Heavy Minerals – Ticor Smelter
Table 14.147 Ticor Smelter: NPV at Various Discount Factors
|
| Discount Factor |
|
NPV |
| (%) |
|
(ZARm) |
| 3.00% |
|
2,281 |
| 6.00% |
|
1,2263 |
| 9.00% |
|
714 |
| 12.25% |
|
384 |
| 15.00% |
|
220 |
| 18.00% |
|
107 |
| 21.00% |
|
35 |
| |
|
|
Table 14.148 Ticor Smelter: NPV Sensitivity to WACC
|
| Sensitivity |
Discount Factor |
NPV |
| (%) |
(%) |
(ZARm) |
| –20.00% |
9.80% |
614 |
| –15.00% |
10.41% |
547 |
| –10.00% |
11.03% |
487 |
| – 5.00% |
11.64% |
433 |
| 0.00% |
12.25% |
384 |
| 5.00% |
12.86% |
341 |
| 10.00% |
13.48% |
302 |
| 15.00% |
14.09% |
266 |
| 20.00% |
14.70% |
131 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 14.149 Ticor Smelter: Single Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sensitivity Range – Revenue |
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| Sensitivity Range – Total Working Cost |
–15% |
–10% |
–5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
| Sensitivity Range – Capital Expenditure |
–15% |
–10% |
–5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
| |
|
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
| Revenue |
|
(3,010) |
(1,879) |
(747) |
3384 |
1,516 |
2,648 |
3,779 |
| Total Working Cost |
1,866 |
1,372 |
878 |
384 |
(110) |
(604) |
(1,097) |
| Capital Expenditure |
509 |
468 |
426 |
384 |
343 |
3011 |
259 |
| |
Table 14.150 Ticor Smelter: Twin Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC (Revenue, Working Costs)
|
|
NPV (ZARm)
|
|
Revenue Sensitivity
|
| |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
–15% |
(1,528) |
(397) |
735 |
1,866 |
2,998 |
4,129 |
5,261 |
| Total |
–10% |
(2,022) |
(891) |
241 |
1,372 |
2,504 |
3.635 |
4,767 |
| Working |
–5% |
(2,516) |
(1,385) |
(253) |
878 |
2,010 |
3,141 |
4,273 |
| Costs |
0% |
(3,010) |
(1,879) |
(77) |
384 |
1,516 |
2,648 |
3,779 |
| Sensitivity |
5% |
(3,504) |
(2,373) |
(1,241) |
(110) |
1,022 |
2,154 |
3,285 |
| |
10% |
(3,998) |
(2,867) |
(1,735) |
(604) |
528 |
11,660 |
2,791 |
| |
15% |
(4,492) |
(3,361) |
(2,229) |
(1,097) |
34 |
1,166 |
2,297 |
| |
|
|
Table 14.151 Ticor Smelter: Twin Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC (Revenue, Capital Expenditure)
|
| NPV (ZARm) |
|
Revenue Sensitivity |
| |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
–15% |
(2,885) |
(1,754) |
(622) |
509 |
1,641 |
2,773 |
3,904 |
| |
–10% |
(2,927) |
(1,795) |
(664) |
468 |
1,599 |
2,731 |
3,862 |
| Expenditure |
–5% |
(2,968) |
(1,837) |
(705) |
426 |
1,558 |
2,689 |
3,821 |
| |
0% |
(3,010) |
(1,879) |
(747) |
384 |
1,516 |
2,648 |
3,779 |
| |
5% |
(3,052) |
(2,373) |
(789) |
343 |
1,474 |
2,606 |
3,737 |
| |
10% |
(3,094) |
(2,867) |
(830) |
301 |
1,433 |
2,564 |
3,696 |
| |
15% |
(3,135) |
(3,361) |
(872) |
259 |
1,391 |
2,522 |
3,654 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
14.7.18
|
Heavy Minerals – Tiwest JV
Table 14.152 Tiwest JV: NPV at Various Discount Factors
|
| Discount Factor |
|
NPV |
| (%) |
|
(AUDm) |
| 3.00% |
|
2,671 |
| 6.00% |
|
1,886 |
| 9.00% |
|
1,389 |
| 10.20% |
|
1,242 |
| 12.00% |
|
1,061 |
| 15.00% |
|
838 |
| 18.00% |
|
680 |
| |
|
|
Table 14.153 Tiwest JV: NPV Sensitivity to WACC
|
| Sensitivity |
Discount Factor |
NPV |
| (%) |
(%) |
(AUDm) |
| –20% |
8.18% |
1,507 |
| –15% |
8.70% |
1,434 |
| –10% |
9.21% |
1,365 |
| – 5% |
9.72% |
1,301 |
| 0% |
10.23% |
1,242 |
| 5% |
10.74% |
1,186 |
| 10% |
11.25% |
1,134 |
| 15% |
11.76% |
1,086 |
| 20% |
12.28% |
1,040 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 14.154 Tiwest JV: Single Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC
|
| Sensitivity Range – Revenue |
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| Sensitivity Range – Total Working Cost |
–15% |
–10% |
–5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
| Sensitivity Range – Capital Expenditure |
–15% |
–10% |
–5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
| |
|
(AUDm) |
(AUDm) |
(AUDm) |
(AUDm) |
(AUDm) |
(AUDm) |
(AUDm) |
| Revenue |
|
(276) |
230 |
736 |
1,242 |
1,748 |
2,254 |
2,760 |
| Total Working Cost |
1,672 |
1,529 |
1,385 |
1,242 |
1,098 |
955 |
811 |
| Capital Expenditure |
1,296 |
1,278 |
1,260 |
1,242 |
1,224 |
1,206 |
1,188 |
| |
Table 14.155
|
Tiwest JV: Twin Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC (Revenue, Working Costs)
|
|
|
NPV (AUDm)
|
|
Revenue Sensitivity
|
| |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
–15% |
154 |
660 |
1,166 |
1,672 |
2,179 |
2,685 |
3,191 |
| Total |
–10% |
11 |
517 |
1,023 |
1,529 |
2,035 |
2,541 |
3,047 |
| Working |
–5% |
(133) |
373 |
879 |
1,385 |
1,892 |
2,398 |
2,904 |
| Costs |
0% |
(276) |
230 |
736 |
1,242 |
1,748 |
2,254 |
2,760 |
| Sensitivity |
5% |
(420) |
86 |
592 |
1,098 |
1,604 |
2,111 |
2,617 |
| |
10% |
(563) |
(57) |
449 |
955 |
1,461 |
1,967 |
2,473 |
| |
15% |
(707) |
(201) |
305 |
811 |
1,317 |
1,823 |
2,330 |
Table 14.156
|
Tiwest JV: Twin Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC (Revenue, Capital Expenditure)
|
|
|
NPV (AUDm)
|
|
Revenue Sensitivity
|
| |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
–15% |
(222) |
284 |
790 |
1,296 |
1,802 |
2,308 |
2,814 |
| Capital |
–10% |
(240) |
266 |
772 |
1,278 |
1,784 |
2,290 |
2,796 |
| Expenditure |
–5% |
(258) |
248 |
754 |
1,260 |
1,766 |
2,272 |
2,778 |
| |
0% |
(276) |
230 |
736 |
1,242 |
1,748 |
2,254 |
2,760 |
| |
5% |
(294) |
212 |
718 |
1,224 |
1,730 |
2,236 |
2,742 |
| |
10% |
(313) |
194 |
700 |
1,206 |
1,712 |
2,218 |
2,724 |
| |
15% |
(331) |
175 |
682 |
1,188 |
1,694 |
2,200 |
2,706 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
14.7.19 |
Base Metals Rosh Pinah
Table 14.157 Rosh Pinah: NPV at Various Discount Factors |
| Discount Factor |
|
NPV |
| (%) |
|
(NADm) |
| 3.00% |
|
674 |
| 6.00% |
|
638 |
| 9.00% |
|
605 |
| 12.25% |
|
573 |
| 15.00% |
|
548 |
| 18.00% |
|
523 |
| 21.00% |
|
500 |
| |
|
|
Table 14.158 Rosh Pinah: NPV Sensitivity to WACC |
| Sensitivity |
Discount Factor |
NPV |
| (%) |
(%) |
(NADm) |
| –20.00% |
9.80% |
597 |
| –15.00% |
10.41% |
591 |
| –10.00% |
11.03% |
585 |
| – 5.00% |
11.64% |
579 |
| 0.00% |
12.25% |
573 |
| 5.00% |
12.86% |
567 |
| 10.00% |
13.48% |
562 |
| 15.00% |
14.09% |
556 |
| 20.00% |
14.70% |
551 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 14.159 |
Rosh Pinah: Single Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC |
|
| Sensitivity Range – Revenue |
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| Sensitivity Range – Total Working Cost |
–15% |
–10% |
–5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
| Sensitivity Range – Capital Expenditure |
–15% |
–10% |
–5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
| |
|
(NADm) |
(NADm) |
(NADm) |
(NADm) |
(NADm) |
(NADm) |
(NADm) |
| Revenue |
|
(73) |
142 |
357 |
573 |
788 |
1,004 |
1,219 |
| Total Working Cost |
735 |
681 |
627 |
573 |
519 |
465 |
411 |
| Capital Expenditure |
577 |
576 |
574 |
573 |
572 |
570 |
569 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 14.160 |
Rosh Pinah: Twin Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC (Revenue, Working Costs) |
|
| NPV (NADm) |
|
Revenue Sensitivity |
| |
|
30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
15% |
89 |
304 |
520 |
735 |
951 |
1,166 |
1,381 |
| Total |
–10% |
35 |
250 |
466 |
681 |
896 |
1,112 |
1,327 |
| Working |
–5% |
(19) |
196 |
412 |
627 |
842 |
1,058 |
1,273 |
| Costs |
0% |
(73) |
142 |
357 |
573 |
788 |
1,004 |
1,219 |
| Sensitivity |
5% |
(128) |
88 |
303 |
519 |
734 |
950 |
1,165 |
| |
10% |
(182) |
34 |
249 |
465 |
680 |
896 |
1,111 |
| |
15% |
(236) |
(20) |
195 |
411 |
626 |
842 |
1,057 |
| |
Table 14.161 |
Rosh Pinah: Twin Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC (Revenue, Capital Expenditure) |
|
|
NPV (NADm)
|
|
Revenue Sensitivity
|
| |
|
30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
15% |
(69) |
146 |
362 |
577 |
793 |
1,008 |
1,224 |
| Capital |
–10% |
(71) |
145 |
360 |
576 |
791 |
1,007 |
1,222 |
| Expenditure |
–5% |
(72) |
143 |
359 |
574 |
790 |
1,005 |
1,221 |
| |
0% |
(73) |
142 |
357 |
573 |
788 |
1,004 |
1,219 |
| |
5% |
(75) |
141 |
356 |
572 |
787 |
1,002 |
1,218 |
| |
10% |
(76) |
139 |
355 |
570 |
786 |
1,001 |
1,216 |
| |
15% |
(78) |
138 |
353 |
569 |
784 |
1,000 |
1,215 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
14.7.20
|
Base Metals – Zincor
Table 14.162 Zincor: NPV at Various Discount Factors
|
| Discount Factor |
|
NPV |
| (%) |
|
(ZARm) |
| 3.00% |
|
992 |
| 6.00% |
|
848 |
| 9.00% |
|
742 |
| 12.25% |
|
658 |
| 15.00% |
|
603 |
| 18.00% |
|
556 |
| 21.00% |
|
518 |
| |
|
|
Table 14.163 Zincor: NPV Sensitivity to WACC
|
| Sensitivity |
Discount Factor |
NPV |
| (%) |
(%) |
(ZARm) |
| –20.00% |
9.80% |
719 |
| –15.00% |
10.41% |
702 |
| –10.00% |
11.02% |
686 |
| – 5.00% |
11.63% |
672 |
| 0.00% |
12.25% |
658 |
| 5.00% |
12.86% |
644 |
| 10.00% |
13.47% |
632 |
| 15.00% |
14.08% |
620 |
| 20.00% |
14.69% |
609 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 14.164 Zincor: Single Parameter NPV Sensitivity
at the WACC
|
| Sensitivity Range – Revenue |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| Sensitivity Range – Total Working Cost |
–15% |
–10% |
–5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
| Sensitivity Range – Capital Expenditure |
–15% |
–10% |
–5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
| |
|
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
| Revenue |
|
(3,207) |
(1,919) |
(631) |
658 |
1,946 |
3,234 |
4,523 |
| Total Working Cost |
|
2,371 |
1,800 |
1,229 |
658 |
87 |
(485) |
(1,056) |
| Capital Expenditure |
|
738 |
711 |
684 |
658 |
631 |
604 |
577 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 14.165
|
Zincor: Twin Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC (Revenue, Working Costs)
|
|
| NPV (ZARm) |
|
Revenue Sensitivity |
| |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
–15% |
(1,494) |
(206) |
1,083 |
2,371 |
3,659 |
4,948 |
6,236 |
| Total |
–10% |
(2,065) |
(777) |
512 |
1,800 |
3,088 |
4,377 |
5,665 |
| Working |
–5% |
(2,636) |
(1,348) |
(59) |
1,229 |
2,517 |
3,805 |
5,094 |
| Costs |
0% |
(3,207) |
(1,919) |
(631) |
658 |
1,946 |
3,234 |
4,523 |
| Sensitivity |
5% |
(3,778) |
(2,490) |
(1,202) |
87 |
1,375 |
2,663 |
3,951 |
| |
10% |
(4,350) |
(3,061) |
(1,773) |
(485) |
804 |
2,092 |
3,380 |
| |
15% |
(4,921) |
(3,632) |
(2,344) |
(1,056) |
233 |
1,521 |
2,809 |
| |
Table 14.166
|
Zincor: Twin Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC (Revenue, Capital Expenditure)
|
|
|
NPV (ZARm)
|
|
Revenue Sensitivity
|
|
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
|
–15% |
(3,127) |
(1,839) |
(550) |
738 |
2,026 |
3,315 |
4,603 |
|
Capital
|
–10% |
(3,154) |
(1,865) |
(577) |
711 |
2,000 |
3,288 |
4,576 |
|
Expenditure
|
–5% |
(3,181) |
(1,892) |
(604) |
684 |
1,973 |
3,261 |
4,549 |
|
0% |
(3,207) |
(1,919) |
(631) |
658 |
1,946 |
3,234 |
4,523 |
|
5% |
(3,234) |
(1,946) |
(657) |
631 |
1,919 |
3,208 |
4,496 |
|
10% |
(3,261) |
(1,972) |
(684) |
604 |
1,892 |
3,181 |
4,469 |
| |
15% |
(3,288) |
(1,999) |
(711) |
577 |
1,866 |
3,154 |
4,442 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
14.7.21
|
Base Metals – Chifeng
The discount rates used for the Chifeng Assets equate to an effective 16.2% South African discount rate.
Table 14.167 Chifeng Phase II and Phase III: NPV at Various Discount Factors
|
| Discount Factor |
|
NPV |
| (%) |
|
(RMBm) |
| 3.00% |
|
2,097 |
| 6.00% |
|
1,233 |
| 9.00% |
|
778 |
| 10.09% |
|
505 |
| 12.00% |
|
351 |
| 14.00% |
|
242 |
| 16.00% |
|
166 |
|
|
Table 14.168 Chifeng Phase II and Phase III: NPV Sensitivity to WACC
|
| Sensitivity |
Discount Factor |
NPV |
| (%) |
(%) |
(RMBm) |
| –20.00% |
8.07% |
702 |
| –15.00% |
8.58% |
645 |
| –10.00% |
9.08% |
594 |
| – 5.00% |
9.59% |
547 |
| 0.00% |
10.09% |
505 |
| 5.00% |
10.59% |
466 |
| 10.00% |
11.10% |
431 |
| 15.00% |
11.60% |
399 |
| 20.00% |
12.11% |
370 |
| |
Table 14.169 |
Chifeng Phase II and Phase III: Single Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC |
|
| Sensitivity Range – Revenue |
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| Sensitivity Range – Total Working Cost |
–15% |
–10% |
–5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
| Sensitivity Range – Capital Expenditure |
–15% |
–10% |
–5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
| |
|
(RMBm) |
(RMBm) |
(RMBm) |
(RMBm) |
(RMBm) |
(RMBm) |
(RMBm) |
| Revenue |
|
(1,659) |
(938) |
(216) |
505 |
1,226 |
1,947 |
2,668 |
| Total Working Cost |
|
1,444 |
1,131 |
818 |
505 |
192 |
(122) |
(435) |
| Capital Expenditure |
|
562 |
543 |
524 |
505 |
486 |
467 |
448 |
| |
Table 14.170 |
Chifeng Phase II and Phase III: Twin Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC (Revenue, Working Costs) |
|
| NPV (RMBm) |
|
Revenue Sensitivity |
| |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
–15% |
(719) |
2 |
723 |
1,444 |
2,166 |
2,887 |
3,608 |
| Total |
–10% |
(1,032) |
(311) |
410 |
1,131 |
1,852 |
2,574 |
3,295 |
| Working |
–5% |
(1,345) |
(624) |
97 |
818 |
1,539 |
2,260 |
2,982 |
| Costs |
0% |
(1,659) |
(938) |
(216) |
505 |
1,226 |
1,947 |
2,668 |
| Sensitivity |
5% |
(1,972) |
(1,251) |
(530) |
192 |
913 |
1,634 |
2,355 |
| |
10% |
(2,285) |
(1,564) |
(843) |
(122) |
600 |
1,321 |
2,042 |
| |
15% |
(2,598) |
(1,877) |
(1,156) |
(435) |
286 |
1,008 |
1,729 |
| |
Table 14.171 |
Chifeng Phase II and Phase III: Twin Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC (Revenue, Capital Expenditure) |
|
| NPV (RMBm) |
|
Revenue Sensitivity |
| |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
–15% |
(1,601) |
(880) |
(159) |
562 |
1,283 |
2,004 |
2,726 |
| Capital |
–10% |
(1,621) |
(899) |
(178) |
543 |
1,264 |
1,985 |
2,707 |
| Expenditure |
–5% |
(1,640) |
(918) |
(197) |
524 |
1,245 |
1,966 |
2,687 |
| |
0% |
(1,659) |
(938) |
(216) |
505 |
1,226 |
1,947 |
2,668 |
| |
5% |
(1,678) |
(957) |
(235) |
486 |
1,207 |
1,928 |
2,649 |
| |
10% |
(1,697) |
(976) |
(254) |
467 |
1,188 |
1,909 |
2,630 |
| |
15% |
(1,716) |
(995) |
(274) |
448 |
1,169 |
1,890 |
2,611 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
14.7.22
|
Industrial Minerals – Glen Douglas
Table 14.172 Glen
Douglas: NPV at Various Discount Factors
|
| Discount Factor |
|
NPV |
| (%) |
|
(ZARm) |
| 3.00% |
|
208 |
| 6.00% |
|
120 |
| 9.00% |
|
73 |
| 12.25% |
|
46 |
| 15.00% |
|
33 |
| 18.00% |
|
24 |
| 21.00% |
|
19 |
| |
|
|
Table 14.173 Glen
Douglas: NPV Sensitivity to WACC
|
| Sensitivity |
Discount Factor |
NPV |
| (%) |
(%) |
(ZARm) |
| 20.00% |
9.80% |
65 |
| 15.00% |
10.41% |
59 |
| 10.00% |
11.02% |
54 |
| 5.00% |
11.63% |
50 |
| 0.00% |
12.25% |
46 |
| 5.00% |
12.86% |
42 |
| 10.00% |
13.47% |
39 |
| 15.00% |
14.08% |
36 |
| 20.00% |
14.69% |
34 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 14.174
|
Glen Douglas: Single Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sensitivity Range – Revenue |
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| Sensitivity Range – Total Working Cost |
–15% |
–10% |
–5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
| Sensitivity Range – Capital Expenditure |
–15% |
–10% |
–5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
| |
|
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
| Revenue |
|
(274) |
(167) |
(61) |
46 |
152 |
259 |
365 |
| Total Working Cost |
173 |
131 |
88 |
46 |
3 |
(39) |
(82) |
| Capital Expenditure |
66 |
59 |
53 |
46 |
39 |
32 |
25 |
| |
Table 14.175
|
Glen Douglas: Twin Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC (Revenue, Working Costs)
|
|
|
NPV (ZARm)
|
|
Revenue Sensitivity
|
| |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
–15% |
(146) |
(39) |
67 |
173 |
280 |
386 |
493 |
| Total |
–10% |
(188) |
(82) |
24 |
131 |
237 |
344 |
450 |
| Working |
–5% |
(231) |
(125) |
(18) |
88 |
195 |
301 |
408 |
| Costs |
0% |
(274) |
(167) |
(61) |
46 |
152 |
259 |
365 |
| Sensitivity |
5% |
(316) |
(210) |
(103) |
3 |
110 |
216 |
323 |
| |
10% |
(359) |
(252) |
(146) |
(39) |
67 |
174 |
280 |
| |
15% |
(401) |
(295) |
(188) |
(82) |
25 |
131 |
237 |
| |
Table 14.176
|
Glen Douglas: Twin Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC (Revenue, Capital Expenditure)
|
|
| NPV (ZARm) |
|
Revenue Sensitivity |
| |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
–15% |
(253) |
(147) |
(40) |
66 |
173 |
279 |
386 |
| Capital |
–10% |
(260) |
(154) |
(47) |
59 |
166 |
272 |
379 |
| Expenditure |
–5% |
(267) |
(160) |
(54) |
53 |
159 |
265 |
372 |
| |
0% |
(274) |
(167) |
(61) |
46 |
152 |
259 |
365 |
| |
5% |
(280) |
(174) |
(67) |
39 |
145 |
252 |
358 |
| |
10% |
(287) |
(181) |
(74) |
32 |
139 |
245 |
352 |
| |
15% |
(294) |
(188) |
(81) |
25 |
132 |
238 |
345 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
14.7.23
|
Industrial Minerals – Kumba FerroAlloys
Table 14.177 Kumba FerroAlloys: NPV at Various Discount Factors
|
| Discount Factor |
|
NPV |
| (%) |
|
(ZARm) |
| 3.00% |
|
270 |
| 6.00% |
|
175 |
| 9.00% |
|
121 |
| 12.25% |
|
86 |
| 15.00% |
|
68 |
| 18.00% |
|
54 |
| 21.00% |
|
45 |
| |
|
|
Table 14.178 Kumba FerroAlloys: NPV Sensitivity to WACC
|
| Sensitivity |
Discount Factor |
NPV |
| (%) |
(%) |
(ZARm) |
| –20.00% |
9.80% |
121 |
| –15.00% |
10.41% |
114 |
| –10.00% |
11.02% |
108 |
| – 5.00% |
11.63% |
102 |
| 0.00% |
12.25% |
86 |
| 5.00% |
12.86% |
92 |
| 10.00% |
13.47% |
88 |
| 15.00% |
14.08% |
84 |
| 20.00% |
14.69% |
80 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 14.179 |
Kumba FerroAlloys: Single Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC |
|
| Sensitivity Range – Revenue |
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| Sensitivity Range – Total Working Cost |
–15% |
–10% |
–5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
| Sensitivity Range – Capital Expenditure |
–15% |
–10% |
–5% |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
| |
|
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
(ZARm) |
| Revenue |
|
(92) |
(32) |
27 |
86 |
146 |
205 |
264 |
| Total Working Cost |
152 |
130 |
108 |
86 |
64 |
42 |
20 |
| Capital Expenditure |
89 |
88 |
87 |
86 |
85 |
84 |
83 |
| |
Table 14.180
|
Kumba FerroAlloys: Twin Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC (Revenue, Working Costs)
|
|
| NPV (ZARm) |
|
Revenue Sensitivity |
| |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
–15% |
(26) |
34 |
93 |
152 |
212 |
271 |
330 |
| Total |
–10% |
(48) |
12 |
71 |
130 |
190 |
249 |
308 |
| Working |
–5% |
(70) |
(10) |
49 |
108 |
168 |
227 |
286 |
| Costs |
0% |
(92) |
(32) |
27 |
86 |
146 |
205 |
264 |
| Sensitivity |
5% |
(114) |
(54) |
5 |
64 |
124 |
183 |
242 |
| |
10% |
(136) |
(76) |
(17) |
42 |
102 |
161 |
220 |
| |
15% |
(158) |
(98) |
(39) |
20 |
80 |
139 |
198 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 14.181 |
Kumba FerroAlloys: Twin Parameter NPV Sensitivity at the WACC (Revenue,Capital Expenditure)
|
|
| NPV (ZARm) |
|
Revenue Sensitivity |
| |
|
–30% |
–20% |
–10% |
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
| |
–15% |
(89) |
(29) |
30 |
89 |
148 |
208 |
267 |
| Capital |
–10% |
(90) |
(30) |
29 |
88 |
147 |
207 |
266 |
| Expenditure |
–5% |
(91) |
(31) |
28 |
87 |
147 |
206 |
265 |
| |
0% |
(92) |
(32) |
27 |
86 |
146 |
205 |
264 |
| |
5% |
(93) |
(33) |
26 |
85 |
145 |
204 |
263 |
| |
10% |
(94) |
(34) |
25 |
84 |
144 |
203 |
262 |
| |
15% |
(95) |
(35) |
24 |
83 |
143 |
202 |
261 |
|
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